Thursday, 8 June 2023

Archbishop Ussher's guide to efficient selection of development candidates

One piece of advice I gave in NoLE is that “drug designers should not automatically assume that conclusions drawn from analysis of large, structurally-diverse data sets are necessarily relevant to the specific drug design projects on which they are working” and the L2021 study that I’m reviewing in this post will give you a good idea of what I was getting at when I wrote that. I see a fair amount of relatively harmless “stamp collecting” in L2021 but there are also some rather less harmless errors of the type that you really shouldn’t be making if cheminformatics is your day job.  

I’ll start the review of L2021 with annotation of the abstract:

"Physicochemical descriptors commonly used to define ‘drug-likeness’ and ligand efficiency measures are assessed for their ability to differentiate marketed drugs from compounds reported to bind to their efficacious target or targets. [I would argue that differentiating an existing drug from existing compounds that bind to the same target is not something that medicinal chemists need to be able to do. It is also incorrect to describe efficiency metrics such as LE and LLE as physicochemical descriptors because they are derived from biological activity measurements such as binding affinity or potency.] Using ChEMBL version 26, a data set of 643 drugs acting on 271 targets was assembled, comprising 1104 drug−target pairs having ≥100 published compounds per target. Taking into account changes in their physicochemical properties over time, drugs are analyzed according to their target class, therapy area, and route of administration. Recent drugs, approved in 2010−2020, display no overall differences in molecular weight, lipophilicity, hydrogen bonding, or polar surface area from their target comparator compounds. Drugs are differentiated from target comparators by higher potency, ligand efficiency (LE), lipophilic ligand efficiency (LLE), and lower carboaromaticity. [I may be missing something but stating that drugs tend to differ in potency from non-drugs that hit the same targets does rather seem to be stating the obvious. The same point can also be made about efficiency metrics such as LE and LLE since these are derived, respectively, by scaling potency with respect to molecular size and offsetting potency with respect to lipophicity (LLE).] Overall, 96% of drugs have LE or LLE values, or both, greater than the median values of their target comparator compounds.” [What is the corresponding figure for potency?]

I must admit to never having been a fan of drug-likeness studies such as L2021 (when I first encountered analyses of time dependency of drug properties about 20 years ago I was left with an impression that some senior medicinal chemists had a bit too much time on their hands) and it is now ten years since the term "Ro5 envy" was introduced in a notorious JCAMD article. My view is that the data analysis presented in L2021 has minimal relevance to drug discovery so I’ll be saying rather less about the data analysis than I’d have done had J Med Chem asked me to review the study.

The L2021 study examines property differences between marketed drugs and compounds reported to bind to efficacious target(s) of each drug. Specifically, the property differences are quantified by difference between the value of the property for the drug and the median of the values of property for the target comparator compounds. If doing this then you really do need to account for the spread in the distribution if you’re going to interpret property differences like these (a large difference in values of a property for the drug and the median property for the target may simply reflect a wide spread in the property distribution for the target).  However, I would argue that a more sensible starting point for analysis like this would be to locate (e.g., as a percentile) the value of each drug property within the corresponding property distribution for the target comparator compounds.

Let’s take a look now at how the authors of L2021 suggest their study be used.  

“This study, like all those looking at marketed drug properties, is necessarily retrospective. Nevertheless, those small molecule drug properties that show consistent differentiation from their target compounds over time, namely, potency, ligand efficiencies (LE and LLE), and the aromatic ring count and lipophilicity of carboaromatic drugs, are those that are most likely to remain future-proof. Candidate drugs emerging from target-based discovery programs should ideally have one, or preferably both, of their LE and LLE values greater than the median value for all other compounds known to be acting at the target.”

I would argue that the L2021 study has absolutely no relevance whatsoever to the selection of compounds for development since the team will have data available that enables them to rule out the vast majority of the project compounds for nomination.  A discovery team nominating a compound for development will have achieved a number of challenging objectives (including potency against target and in one or more cell-based assays) and the likely response of team members to a suggestion that they calculate medians for LE and LLE for comparison with nomination candidate(s) is likely to be bemused eye-rolling. In general, a discovery team nominating a development candidate has access to a lot of unpublished potency measurements (which won’t be in ChEMBL) and it’s usually a safe assumption that the development candidate will be selected from the most potent compounds (LE and LLE values for these compounds are also likely to be above average). In the extremely unlikely event that the discovery team nominates a compound with LE or LLE values below the magic median values then you can be confident that the decision has been based on examination of measured data (consider the likelihood of the discovery team members acting on a suggestion that they should pick another compound with LE or LLE value above the magic median values because doing so will increase the probability of success in clinical development).   

As the start of the post, I did mention some errors that you don’t want to be making if cheminformatics is your day job and regular readers of this blog will have already guessed that I’m talking about ligand efficiency (LE). I should point out l that the problem is with the ligand efficiency metric and not the ligand efficiency concept which is both scientifically sound and useful, especially in fragment-based design where molecular size often increases significantly in the hit-to-lead phase. 

The problem with the LE metric is that perception of efficiency changes when you express affinity (or potency) using a different unit and this is shown clearly in Table 1 in NoLE. Expressing a quantity using a different unit doesn’t change the quantity so any change in perception is clearly physical nonsense. That’s why I appropriate a criticism (it’s not even wrong) usually attributed to Pauli when taking gratuitous pot shots at the LE metric.  The change in perception is also cheminformatic nonsense and that’s why it’s rather unwise to use the LE metric if cheminformatics is your day job. L2021 does cite NoLE but simply notes the LE metric’s “scientific basis and application have provoked a literature debate”.

The L2021 study asserts that “the absolute LE value of a drug candidate is less important” but the problem is that even differences in LE change when you express affinity (or potency) using a different concentration unit. This is shown in Table 2 in NoLE and the problem is that there is no objective way to select a particular concentration unit as ‘better’ than all the other concentration units.  To conclude, can we say that a medicinal chemistry leader’s choice of concentration unit (1 M) is any better (or any worse) than that of Archbishop Ussher (4.004 μM)?